Need help with political science and an International Relation Problem (Game Theory)

5d.)  Suppose the US is uncertain of Caledonia’s preferences (assume Caledonia knows their own preferences).  That is, with some probability, p, the US thinks Caledonia has the preference ordering from Figure 1.) and with probability 1- p  the US thinks Caledonia has the preference ordering from Figure 2.).  Describe the strategic problem Caledonia faces with sending a message to the US saying “I would be willing to go-it-alone if you veto”?  Could this message be credible? Why or why not?  

 

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